The Quicksand Effect

It is a prediction by political pundits and Iran analysts that on February 11th, or 22nd of Bahman in the Iranian calendar, of this year, Ali Khamenei and the revolutionary guards will once again be set on a collision course with the Iranian people. The significance of this date is that in 1979 Iranians did the unthinkable; they not only overthrew the Shah and the Pahlavi dynasty but managed to change an entire political system, the monarchy and all that it represented. This monumental day is thus important in Iranian history because it epitomizes a break with the past and with a government that had lost touch with its people.

Today, a new confrontation has emerged that once again puts the Iranian spirit and its political aspirations to the test as a new generation voices its demands for a secular democracy and human rights, while at the same time, standing united against a theocracy that no longer represents the will of the majority.

Over the past seven months Iranians have seen the merciless nature of the Islamic regime and have come to realize that its sole purpose is to function as an instrument of repression while serving the interest of a few disguised behind Gods name. With the brutal crackdown that followed the elections in June of 2009 and during Ashura (holy day of Shia muslims), the imprisonment of opposition leaders, and the continuous human rights violations, show trials, executions and tortures of protesters whose list of names are growing longer by the day it has become self-evident that the Islamic regime has lost its legitimacy and the right to rule.

But like all dictatorships, the junta wants Iranians to believe that it's in full control disregarding any social discontent or uprising as marginal. It has even tried to put on a brave face by conducting TV debates between reformers and hardliners while in the late hours of the night the secret police conduct more arrests and staged courts hand down long prison sentences to human rights activists who stand trial on bogus charges. The Islamic regime senses an inevitable demise and an incapacity to run the affairs of a nation. With its inability to function both domestically and internationally it has reached a stage I call the “quicksand effect” where no matter what it does, no matter how it reacts and no matter what decision it takes its doom is inevitable and resistance only makes death come even quicker. Word on the streets of Tehran is that 22nd of Baham will be yet another big day for the people, let’s see how deep in quicksand will the regime go this round.