The New Balance of Power in the Middle East (part I of II)

I want you to picture this scenario for a second. It’s March 21st, 2010 and in Iran the campaign of unity, solidarity and peaceful resistance lead by the green movement has triumphed in a hard fought battle over tyranny and oppression of the past 30 years. Many of the Sepah and Basij rank and file responsible for committing heinous crimes against humanity since the June 12, 2009 fraudulent election and subsequent coup d’état that followed have either repented or surrendered. While a number of the top commanders have chosen to flee the country rather than face justice.

On the streets of Iran from Tabriz in the north to Bandar-Abbas in the south, from Hamedan in the west to Birjand in the east, young and old are jubilant, dancing, cheering and rejoicing over their new found freedoms and hope of a brighter future on this glorious day. While the celebrations are taking place the radio announces that all political detainees have been set free from the notorious Evin prison, women are emancipated from having to wear the forced chador and roosari (Islamic hejab) and that President Mousavi is sworn in to take the office as Iran’s interim elected President with the army and the people now firmly behind him. At the airport, planes from British Airways, Lufthansa, Emirates Airlines, Air France and others cover the runway filled to capacity with Iranians, only this time and contrary to 1979 where most liberals were fleeing the country they were making their way back home after 30 years of fear from persecution.

Now, while you still have this picture in mind, visualize this, President Obama in a breaking news announcement on CNN broadcasts his second video message addressed to the people of Iran. The message goes something like this, “As the president of the United States and on behalf of the people of America I congratulate you, the brave and courageous people of Iran on your resolve to see democracy and human rights be restored in the land where such principles was first founded. On this very important day of Norouz (Persian New Year) America once again extends its hand of friendship and we make a commitment to having a strong and lasting relationship with Iran and the Iranian people, eid e shoma mobarak.” Within hours, the president of Iran reciprocates with a message to the American people expressing his appreciation for the gesture and looks forward with hope and optimism to fostering a new beginning in Iran-US relations based on mutual respect and mutual trust”.

Now, I want you to ask yourself this question, in whose interest is it that this reality never materializes? In other words who stands to lose the most if Iran – US relations strengthens and what would it mean to the new balance of power in the region if America and Iran were no longer enemies to each other?

Leave me your thoughts and comments in who you think has the most to loose both domestically and internationally and I will post my opinion as a follow up to this introduction on who I think are the obstacles to a better US – Iran relations. You will be surprised to know who they really are ....