Why the Regime in Iran is so afraid of Change, Regime Change

With the fall of the Shah on February 11th 1979 and the return of Ayatollah Khomeini to Iran, a group of clerics masterfully orchestrated a coup d’état within a peoples revolution. In a power grab supported by Islamists and lead by clerics to the likes of Rafsanjani and Khamenei a referendum vote was cunningly drafted that combined two ideologically distinct political systems together. This deceiving move meant that only one option was to be presented on the ballot, the Islamic Republic of Iran – YES or NO.

With momentum and an iconic Islamic figure on their side, a fractured and disillusioned opposition group, and a people in state of disbelief that they had managed to oust a King, the plot was complete and 99% of votes was cast in favor of a new regime that was by nature elitist, fundamentalist, and anything but democratic. To solidify the rein of power and to prevent the cohorts of the revolution from regrouping upon realizing what had just taken place, the new theocracy wasted no time in systematically eliminating opposition political activists either through mass execution or by forcing them into exile. It was fate accompli and a zero – sum game had been won by the Islamists, but at what cost?

The Social Contract is Broken

30 years later and with the coming of age of a new generation of Iranians that have lived under the theocracy and have experienced all that it represents it has become clear first and foremost to the Iranian people and second to the world, that this political system is unable to meet the needs and wants of its people.

People in Iran are frustrated with all the inadequacies, depravity and moral depravation of those in power and are fed up with the false promises and missed opportunities that should have made life easier for Iranians. The turn of events since the June 12th 2009 election are indicative of this sentiment, while the regime on the other hand, has shown no intention of respecting the will of its people, and to maintain its grip on power, much like 1979 has embarked on a series of violent tactics and ruthlessness to silence its opposition, acts of which the world has now witnessed firsthand via YouTube.

However, what the Islamic regime fails to realize is that unlike 1979 where it played the role of opposition to the Shah and riding on the good faith and beliefs of the people, today it is undermining its own legitimacy as a political system by depriving its citizens the right to determine their political future.

This failing has lead to the expansion of a protest movement that no longer wants a recount of votes but has turned into a national unity campaign to change the entire Islamic system of governance and the way to go about it as agreed to by political thinkers, activists and protesters both inside the country and overseas is through a national referendum with more than just one option on the ballot as was the case in 1979.

Regime Change

History at times has a habit of repeating itself so one has to wonder, will the Islamic regime bow its head and abdicate power much like the Shah did back in 1979 or will it resist. Now I’m not a betting man but if I was to put up money down I would have to consider the odds in favor of the 40 million Iranian youth under the age of 35 who today are ready to risk their life and limb for freedom, human rights and a secular democracy. A system that in its totality would guarantee Iran and Iranians long term political stability, opportunity for divers political groups to form parties and compete within a representative form of government and an openness for Iranians to engage with the free world.

Most Iranian political analysts would agree that what makes this national movement so unique unlike its predecessor in 1979 is that the political movement back then knew what it didn’t want, an appointed strongman with absolute power. This generation on the other hand knows exactly what it does want and from a young protester in Iran by the name of Vahid who wants you the read to know, “this February 11th 2010 will be an history day in Iran and a turning point that will put us one final step closer towards our goal of freedom and democracy, something our parents started in 1979 but we get to finish.”

Stand united with IRAN.