War Games

Eight months after a rigged presidential election that infuriated millions of Iranians by having their vote stolen followed by a series of street protests that lead to violence and the death of hundreds, the imprisonment of thousands, and the execution of many protesters, the calendar date approaches yet another occasion for Iranians to demonstrate their discontent with the regime, February 11th, the day the Islamic revolution was won back in 1979.

The social media networks are already in full communiqué, twitter and facebook are blistering with messages, posters and fliers in preparation for yet another showdown between the people and the junta. This time however the tone and nature of the demands are very different. It’s no longer about the election or votes, but rather, the legitimacy of the theocracy and its incompetent rulers is in question.

But while an historic movement is going in Iran, America has sent warships to the Persian Gulf and additionally has announced the installation of surface to air antimissile systems in neighboring Persian Gulf states such as the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Why is military build-up, this option of last resort as President Obama had stated, all of a sudden become an imminent option?

The answer can come from three different assumptions with three possible scenarios.

The first, as reported by various Middle East analysts is the assumption that in response to international sanctions namely the blockage of oil and gas into and from Iran, the Islamic regime may consider this an act of war and retaliate by launching missiles into Israel and other US interests in the region. With this assumption it is necessary for the United States to protect its allies and to prevent such strikes from hitting hard targets. Thus to build assurance in the event of an escalation of tension between the United States and Iran, America has prepared itself to defend its allies, including Israel.

The second assumption is that Israel may engage in adventurism of its own by attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities. In anticipation of such a scenario, an American presence will in fact reduce the likelihood of such a devastating move that can enflame the entire region into war by curbing Israeli interest in an airstrike.

And the third assumption is that once the sanctions regime starts to have impact on the Islamic regime Iran, as part of its defense strategy, may attempt to block the straits of hormoz thus crippling the global economy by preventing oil flow from the Persian Gulf. In such a case the American warships will be able to deter such destabilizing maneuvers or in a worst-case situation be able to unblock the water way expeditiously and protect it from Iranian influence.

However, what really concerns me is the thought that America and the free world have somehow given up on the democracy movement in Iran ahead of February 11th and the subsequent days and months thereafter. In my opinion any thought of war with Iran at this stage is a grave mistake now that Iranians have found the courage to stand up to this brutal and anti-Iranian regime. A movement that is rapidly uniting workers unions, teachers, diplomats, clerics, students, professors, women’s groups and other sectors of society who no longer want to live a life under the Islamic regime.

It would be a grave mistake if America would once again give in to outside pressures and foreign influence on matters of foreign policy with respect to Iran by marginalizing or dismissing the green movement as a serious and viable option that can bring about peace and stability not only within Iran but to the greater Middle East. I hope this does not happen while democracy is on the march in that country.