Has the United States made up its mind ...

The United States Congress has today introduced a bill that would ultimately cut off Iranian banks from transacting internationally. The bill would prevent all international banks from accepting money transfers from any and all Iranian banks. So far 100 internationally recognized financial institutions have agreed in principle to follow this law if and when it becomes law.

So the question arises, is this step a tactical move on the part of the United States to keep the pressure on Iran to come clean on its nuclear intentions or has the United States come to the conclusion that the Islamic regime is incapable of truth telling and therefore compliance can only come through strict sanctions.

The second round of talks between the P5+1 and Iran is scheduled for October 25th and in all likelihood the mood in the room will not be as easygoing as it was in round one for the simple fact that Iran is now expected to not only agree to the terms of the IAEA inspection regime but also to handover its nuclear scientific knowhow. This is a hard pill for Iran to swallow since the Islamic regime has spent the past four years denouncing pressure of any sorts from the West to open up its facilities which it regards as its national rights. Thus to backtrack will be viewed as a sign of weakness and humiliation.

Now the question is can Iran be persuaded to comply with the demands of the world or will it walk away from the negotiation table and prepare for the worst? My guess is, and I make this assessment based on the realignment and reshuffling of hard-line “Basij and Sepah” leaders into key posts in Iran, is that coup government will walk away from the talks and rather than comply, Ahmadinejad and his cohorts will prepare themselves for sanctions with the belief that the country can withstand international pressures as it has done in the past. Cutting Iran off from the world will also give them the opportunity to go after the opposition groups and in doing so the regime will rule with an iron fist by clamping down on any form of uprising. Already we are seeing signs of more arrests, executions and long sentences for many of the people who took part in the green movement and with all indications the regime will soon go after Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karoubi and Mohammad Khatami as the final blow to the Green Movement.

Will this move serve the United States and the world order, in the short-term no. But once the sanctions start having their effect on the Iranian economy the people of Iran will once again be emboldened to leave their mark on Iranian politics the same way they did 30 years ago. But this time there is a visible difference in that the Iranian people know exactly what they want and know what to expect from the International community, which is nothing more than their moral support for bring a free and democratic Iran back into the community of nations.