Has the United States made up its mind ...

The United States Congress has today introduced a bill that would ultimately cut off Iranian banks from transacting internationally. The bill would prevent all international banks from accepting money transfers from any and all Iranian banks. So far 100 internationally recognized financial institutions have agreed in principle to follow this law if and when it becomes law.

So the question arises, is this step a tactical move on the part of the United States to keep the pressure on Iran to come clean on its nuclear intentions or has the United States come to the conclusion that the Islamic regime is incapable of truth telling and therefore compliance can only come through strict sanctions.

The second round of talks between the P5+1 and Iran is scheduled for October 25th and in all likelihood the mood in the room will not be as easygoing as it was in round one for the simple fact that Iran is now expected to not only agree to the terms of the IAEA inspection regime but also to handover its nuclear scientific knowhow. This is a hard pill for Iran to swallow since the Islamic regime has spent the past four years denouncing pressure of any sorts from the West to open up its facilities which it regards as its national rights. Thus to backtrack will be viewed as a sign of weakness and humiliation.

Now the question is can Iran be persuaded to comply with the demands of the world or will it walk away from the negotiation table and prepare for the worst? My guess is, and I make this assessment based on the realignment and reshuffling of hard-line “Basij and Sepah” leaders into key posts in Iran, is that coup government will walk away from the talks and rather than comply, Ahmadinejad and his cohorts will prepare themselves for sanctions with the belief that the country can withstand international pressures as it has done in the past. Cutting Iran off from the world will also give them the opportunity to go after the opposition groups and in doing so the regime will rule with an iron fist by clamping down on any form of uprising. Already we are seeing signs of more arrests, executions and long sentences for many of the people who took part in the green movement and with all indications the regime will soon go after Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karoubi and Mohammad Khatami as the final blow to the Green Movement.

Will this move serve the United States and the world order, in the short-term no. But once the sanctions start having their effect on the Iranian economy the people of Iran will once again be emboldened to leave their mark on Iranian politics the same way they did 30 years ago. But this time there is a visible difference in that the Iranian people know exactly what they want and know what to expect from the International community, which is nothing more than their moral support for bring a free and democratic Iran back into the community of nations.

Iran – US talks is ON

The world watched in anticipation the results of today's historic meeting between Iran and the permanent five members of the UN Security Council plus Germany in a villa on the outskirts of Geneva. Reporters waited for their cues to give their analysis on its outcome which on the surface seemed to be all about Iran’s nuclear transparency or the lack thereof. But I would argue, that the meat and bone of this encounter is in fact less about Iran’s nuclear facilities and more about how America and Iran can once again rekindle old relationships. So in order to project what could be expected from this meeting it is important to understand what each party’s position was going in, first. I start with Iran:

Iran’s demands are straightforward. I make this conclusion based on a proposal that Iran had sent the Bush Administration sometime in 2005. It expressed Tehran's readiness to assist with the Israeli/Palestinian conflict by exercising its influence on Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran also offered to assist in the war on terror in Iraq and Afghanistan. In return, it expected the U.S. to lift existing sanctions. And while Iran was suffering economically it knew that the country still had enough regional influence that could make life either easy or hard for the Americans. That proposal fell on deaf ears and America never took Iran serious enough to reply back.
Now, despite the outcome of the June 12th election that has completely undermined the credibility of the current government and has jeopardized the legitimacy of the Islamic regime, Iran’s position remains the same:

a) it demands recognition as a regional power player and political broker in Middle East affairs,
b) it expects renewed guarantees, much the same way it did in the early years of the revolution from the Reagan administration that America would not get involved, directly or indirectly, in regime change, and
c) it wants sanctions lifted that have prevented the country from having access to open market goods and services which it currently buys through hidden channels on the black market at absorbingly high prices.

America’s position is also not so complex. It wants access to Iran as a strategic Middle East country, its market which includes oil, gas and telecommunications industry and to be able to sell American goods and services like it use to during the Shah's era. It also expects Iran to pull its support from terror groups in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza and to stop flaming Shiite factions in Iraq.

How the two parties view each other

How Iran sees America – To the Iranians America appears as a country that is way in over its head. Militarily it is stretched both in Iraq and in Afghanistan, financially the country is in a recession with most of its major industries bankrupt and that the country’s recovery plan looks bleak. Morally they will make the case that capitalism and liberal values have not yielded the results they had promised and to the contrary have lead to a moral decay.

How America sees Iran – To the Americans Iran is looked at as a dictatorship and a coercive regime that brutalizes its people under the name of religion. The June 12th election and its aftermath are clear indications of this oppressive regime which has now made the country increasingly unstable. It is a country that could potentially be on the verge of political collapse. Internationally it is also under pressure in terms of its nuclear development and how all signs indicate that Iran wants to develop the nuclear bomb, if nothing else to learn how to weaponize its nuclear capabilities. It is also a country in economic neglect which means again more of its citizens are finding it harder and harder to make ends meet.

So, it is my guess that both sides entered the meeting with their swords drawn taking positions and addressing points to show the other that they have the upper hand.

What card did each country play?

Iran on America – Iran probably started with a position of strength by stating that the country has been in isolation and under U.S. sanctions for over 30 years and as a result played the “I’m self-sufficient card.” Iran likely implied that there is not a single thing America can offer the country that it doesn’t already have. This position aims to reinforce the multi-polar balance of power theory with the intent to force America to concede its hegemonic posture. From Iran perspective it rejects the idea of the world having a single power world order.

America on Iran – America likely played the nuclear card and called Iran a threat to world peace. The U.S. negotiators came prepared to demand full compliance with IAEA rules and a total halt on Iran militarizing its nuclear capabilities. After all, that was the position the Americans had taken all along when going into these talks. They made it clear that they were only interested in talking about Iran’s nuclear program and nothing else. America regards Iran’s finger on the nuke button a serious threat and will do everything it can to prevent from such a threat level ever being reached.

Beyond the rhetoric’s – the outcome

We need to look beyond the prelude rhetoric and high drama of Ahmadinejad speeches at the UN where he talked about an Armageddon, the coming of the 12th Imam and Judgment Day. This discourse is just another way of telling the world we have nothing to lose by going into these talks. It also shows that the government and the Islamic regime as a whole is on thin ice domestically. And it lessens Tehran's credibility internationally. But after the tough talk, in the end, they will have to chose one of three options:

a) Accept international sanctions which could ultimately lead to a collapse of the country,
b) Compliance and engagement with the international community, or
c) Walk away from the talks and engaging in a military confrontation

If I was a betting man I would put my money on option b. But it all really depends on what’s going on behind closed doors in Tehran since it’s the regime's belief that they have nothing to lose. In the end, only time will tell.

---
Shahriar Shahabi is a Middle East political strategist and Paltalk News Network correspondent

Democratization of Iran should be the only real option on the table in US - Iran talks

We know that the Obama administration has sent out all the right signals since the president took office in January of 2009. Heck, his sincerity was so overwhelming in his celebratory message to the Iranian people on Norouz (the Persian New Year) that it felt like Iran and the United States have been pals forever. It was a good gesture to winning the hearts and minds of Iranians but then came the strings attached.

The US administration then connected the soft campaign to what was labeled as “transactional diplomacy” which is code for “let’s get down to business”. Fine, the United States wants to befriend Iran and do business. However, anyone who has taken international business 101 will tell you that to engage in a productive, profitable and friendly bilateral trade relations requires prerequisites the most important of which for Iran means having a stable democratic political system.

Now some would argue that America already does business with nondemocratic countries in the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia, but make no mistake, Iran is no Saudi Arabia and even the Saudi’s would tell you today that they are not happy with the nature of their relationship with the US so that’s not the kind of relationship we are talking about establishing between the two countries, at least I hope not.

So, now that US – Iran talks are to get underway, the Obama administration needs to focus its efforts on pushing for a relationship with Iran based on common principles and common values and the only way to achieve this objective in my view is to push for the democratization of Iran.

How the United States should proceed for meeting this objective:

Rather than putting the focus on Iran’s nuclear development and its enrichment program I would argue that the US negotiation team work its way up to that point by addressing the following key points.

a) Calling the government in Tehran on the election fraud. This way the coup regime sitting on the opposite side of the negotiation table will know that the United States is not in this discussion to appease the coup regime and that it does not recognize this government as the legitimate representative of the people of Iran in its present form.

This sets the tone that despite the election results America is serious about engaging with Iran and the Iranian people who want better ties with America and if the coup regime cannot deliver on bridging this relationship, the people of Iran (the green movement) are willing to do so (the chants of down with Russia, down with China and down with the dictator as opposed to death to America which the regime was calling for post June 12th 2009 is a clear indication of the present mood in Iran).

b) Show strength of conviction. The coup government in Tehran believes that the United States has been weakened as a result of the global economic meltdown and its lackluster performances in Iraq and Afghanistan. They have used this propaganda so much for domestic consumption that they actually have come to believe that America is no match for Iran. Therefore, the United States must demonstrate that its political, economic and military will can out last Iran’s mischief if the coup government decides to cause trouble in the region as a means to divert global attention. This again brings the focus back onto Iran and will not allow the coup government of Ahmadinejad to present an alternative new world order model which it seems to do under an Islamic system and life form (this new world order was presented by Ahmadinejad in brief during his speech at the UN general assembly).

c) THIS IS KEY - Demand democratization. Make it clear that as a first step to economic cooperation Iran must a) adhere to human rights laws which means putting into place political and social freedoms as defined by the oxford political dictionary and NOT the regimes interpretation of democracy and social justice, b) democratize its political system to a secular multiparty system as a guarantee for political stability in the country if the United States is going to invest in a long term diplomatic and business relationship with Iran, and c) move towards liberalizing the economy (the break-up of state monopolies). The message should be that America does business best with countries that share the same values and principles as her, and I can tell you from personal experience that Iran and America have a lot in common. And finally,

d) Display sincerity in a win-win strategy. Make it clear that if Iran implements a democratic system America is ready to talk about lifting existing sanctions, helping Iran with economic modernization plans and the development and enhancement of its nuclear plants for peaceful purposes. The Ahmadinejad coup regime MUST understand it has a credibility problem that is in dire both domestically and internationally and until it cleans up its act “transactional diplomacy” will not mean a thing. America must also make one other important point clear and that is the United States is ready to walk away from the negotiation table and take this discussion directly to the Iranian people which would then bear the following consequences to the Ahmadinejad coup government:

a. The denouncement of the Ahmadinejad coup government as the legitimate representatives of the Iranian people
b. The creation of a blockade on Iran’s core industry by placing sanctions on its oil exports and petroleum imports.
c. The blockade all financial assets of the coup regime in foreign banks.
d. Travel restrictions on the coup regimes top 100 people, And
e. Offering moral support to the forces within Iran that are ready to bring about political stability in the country and promote better relations with the free world.

In my view the worst thing America can do now that dialogue with Iran is about to commence is to break off talks and replace it with UN backed sanction without teeth or alternatively allow an Israeli air attack on Iran. Going to war with a people that have great admiration for America and the American people is a tragedy in US Middle East foreign policy and if that does happen the United States will have handed Iran over to the Russians and the Chinese in a platter and diminished its influence in the region forever.

Shar Shahabi
Middle East Political Strategist

Ahmadinejad denounces the existence of Israel

Once again Ahmadinejad out does himself by saying that the state of Israel should never have become. “It is a false state that should never have come to existence in the Middle East and if the west likes it so much they should have established it in Europe since they created the disaster”. Someone take this guy out back and gag him. I can’t believe he has been invited to the UN to speak.

Counter Chants ... ma ahle koofeh neesteeem pool begeereem be eesteem

Secular Slogans for seperation of religion and state in Iran

Thousands took to the streets in protest across Iran

TEHRAN, Iran – Hard-liners attacked senior pro-reform leaders in the streets as tens of thousands marched in competing mass demonstrations by the opposition and government supporters. Opposition protesters, chanting "death to the dictator," hurled stones and bricks in clashes with security forces firing tear gas.

The opposition held its first major street protests since mid-July, bringing out thousands in demonstrations in several parts of the capital. In some cases only several blocks away, tens of thousands marched in government-sponsored rallies marking an annual anti-Israel commemoration.

The commemoration, known as Quds Day, is a major political occasion for the government — a day for it to show its anti-Israeli credentials and its support for the Palestinians. Quds is the Arabic word for Jerusalem. During a speech for the rallies, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad railed against Israel and the West, questioning whether the Holocaust occurred and calling it a pretext for occupying Arab land.

But the opposition was determined to turn the day into a show of its survival and continued strength despite a fierce three-month-old crackdown against it since the disputed June 12 presidential election.

Top opposition leaders joined the protests, in direct defiance of commands by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who barred anti-government demonstrations on Quds Day. That could provoke an escalation in the crackdown: hard-line clerics have been demanding the past week that any leader backing the protests should be arrested.

Tens of thousands joined the government-organized marches, starting in various parts of the capital and proceeding to Tehran University. Police and security forces, along with pro-government Basij militiamen, fanned out along main squares and avenues and in many cases tried to keep nearby opposition protesters away from the Quds Day rallies to prevent clashes, witnesses said.

Opposition supporters poured onto main boulevards and squares, wearing green T-shirts and wristbands and waving green banners and balloons — the color of the reform movement. They waved their fingers in the air in V-for-victory signs along with pictures of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, chanting "death to the dictator."

Others chanted, "Not Gaza, not Lebanon — our life is for Iran" — a slogan directly challenging the government's support for anti-Israeli Palestinian militants in Gaza and Lebanon's Hezbollah guerrilla. Some shouted for Ahmadinejad's government to resign. Some women marched with their children in tow.

But at one of the several opposition rallies around the city, a group of hard-liners pushed through the crowd and attacked former President Mohamad Khatami, a cleric who is one of the most prominent pro-reform figures, according to a reformist Web site. The report cited witnesses as saying the opposition activists rescued Khatami and quickly repelled the assailants.

Hard-liners tried to attack the main opposition leader, Mir Hossein Mousavi, when he joined another march elsewhere in the city, a witness said. Supporters rushed Mousavi into his car when the hard-liners approached, and the vehicle sped away as his supporters pushed the hard-liners back, the witness said. He and other witnesses spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of government retaliation.

Another pro-reform leader, Mahdi Karroubi, who also ran in the presidential election, also joined protests elsewhere in the city.

In one of the main Tehran squares, Haft-e Tir, security forces weilding batons and firing tear gas tried to break up one of the opposition marched, and were met with protesters throwing stones and bricks, witnesses said. Several policemen were seen being taken away with light injuries. At least 10 protesters were seized by plainclothes security agents in marches around the city, witnesses said.

The pro-government Quds Day rallies were held in cities around the country, and the opposition staged competing rallies in the southern and central cities of Shiraz and Isfahan, witnesses said. In Shiraz, police rushed the protesters with batons, scuffling with them, witnesses said.

The opposition claims that Ahmadinejad won the June election by fraud and that Mousavi is the rightful victor. Hundreds of thousands marched in support of Mousavi in the weeks after the vote, until police, Basij and the elite Revolutionary Guard crushed the protests, arresting hundreds. The opposition says 72 people were killed in the crackdown, thought the government puts the number at 36. The last significant protest was on July 17.

In sheer numbers, the opposition turnout was far smaller than the mass pro-government Quds Day marches — not surprising given the state's freedom to organize the gathering.

Customarily on Quds Day, Iranians gather for pro-Palestinian rallies in various parts of the city, marching through the streets and later converging for the prayer ceremony. The ceremony was established in 1979 by the leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

Just hundreds of yards (meters) away from opposition protesters on the main Keshavarz Boulevard, thousands of Ahmadinejad supporters marched carrying huge photographs of the president and Supreme Leader Khamenei. Some in the government-sponsored rally chanted: "Death to those who oppose the supreme leader!"

At the climax of the occasion, Ahmadinejad addressed worshippers before Friday prayers at the Tehran University campus, reiterating his anti-Holocaust rhetoric that has drawn international condemnation since 2005. He questioned whether the "Holocaust was a real event" and saying Israel was created on "a lie and mythical claims."

NASSER KARIMI, Associated Press Writer

More protests from the streets of Tehran on "Iran Day" - Sept. 18th 2009

Images from Iran Day rally - Friday 18th of September 2009

The Iranian people once again

show thier dislike of a regime and those in it who have stolen their votes, killed their people, and have tortured their brothers and sisters.

Chants of Death to China... on the streets of Tehran Friday Sept. 18th 2009

Chants of Death to Russia ... on the streets of Tehran Friday Sept. 18th 2009

Message from Tehran on "Iran Day" Friday Sept. 18th 2009

The main starting / meeting point for the demonstration participants was in Haft e tir square where both Green and Governments supporters began to gather.

The two groups used separate streets to arrive at the university, but what was very apparent was that the greens greatly outnumbered the government turnout.
The “Green” crowd was large and people were amazed not only at the turn out in terms of numbers but also in terms of young and old, men and women, adults and children and women in the various spectrum of Islamic dress, from the mini-scarf to industrial chador. All were green today.

The crowd was also cheered on by construction workers waving green banners from upper floors as well as the subliminal signs of approval from many of the police as well as people in their cars honking their horns and waving green flags and giving the "victory sign".

This turnout seemed to give a new force to many who just days before were just considering attending or of the opinion that the movement was finished. Everyone was shocked by not only the turnout in terms of numbers but how GREEN it was At one point in the middle of the street the Karoubbi arrived amidst cheers and jubilation. Participants distributed masks for identity protection as well as in gas of pepper or tear gas as well as tying green ribbons on everyone’s fingers, necks and foreheads. At one point passing a grandstand replete with clerics, from somewhere the old Iranian anthem began, Ey Iran – to which all began singing – followed by fervent chants of “Marg bar Dictator”.

Crossing a large traffic circle, the crowd had to pass through a large contingency of police and basij that were filming the crowd. At one point a demonstrator was seized and the crowd pulled him back. Finally at one point a truck filled with the “Slogan Leaders – those with the loudspeaker that call out to the crowd to cheer in unison” began to speed through the crowd in order to disperse marchers and ruin the mood, following this tear gas began to fill the air and people began to flee to escape the tear gas and also any possible police or basij reprisal that might follow.

Codoleezza Rice talking about the Middle East, Russia, China and Iran

http://money.cnn.com/video/fortune/2009/09/17/f_mpw_rice_iran.fortune

Controlled Media setting for Qods rally in Tehran

Newz Brief: According to received information, international reporters will be stationed in specific locations during the rally tomorrow in Tehran so that the regime's supporters are in the shot. In order to counter this effort citizen journalist are requested to send their videos and pictures to international news agencies ASAP so that the big lie about could be preempted.Read More

IAEA flip-flops on the Nuclear Issue of Iran

Newz Brief: IAEA changes vocals in saying Iran is after the A. bomb. What I make of this is that there is an all out offensive on the regime in Tehran to change its behavior. Let’s see if it will work. However, it will be a sad day if the world community stopped short of pushing for human rights for the Iranian people in favor of what the Whitehouse calls "transactional diplomacy" or what I call a quick buck.

The IRGCs warning to the Iranian people and the Green Movement

Newz Brief: In fear of widespread public participation in tomorrows demonstration, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) issued a statement in a bid to prevent the Iranian people from participating in a nationwide protest by resorting to what... they have called a "crushing confrontation" with the enemies of the revolution. The statement comes after Ali Khamenei's speech to the nation on September 17th 2009.

Basij forces have been called to Tehran for Qods Day

Newz Brief: While international reporters have been allowed back into Iran to cover tomorrows rally the regime is doing everything it can to show calm. it is worth noting that the media’s presence can act in favor of the green movement as it will reduce the likelihood of state sponsored violence, ruthlessness and clashes. The basiji’s have been brought in and are on standby.

Roxana Saberi on VOA

Newz Brief: Watching Iranian American journalist Roxana Saberi on VOA. She spent 6 years in Iran and was a prisoner for 6 months accused of spying for the CIA in Iran. Her father is Iranian and mother Japanese but having spent this time in Iran she speaks eloquently (in farsi) on the situation in the country.

Her view is that the youth of Iran, which make up over 75% of the population today demand individual freedoms and civil liberties such as the right to political self-determine, the right to live free from fear and persecution and the right to have economic prosperity in today’s global economy.

The current system can not deliver these new values within a modern context of society.

Rally in Tehran for Qods Day

Newz Brief: Tomorrow Iranians rally to the streets on "Iran Day". The question the world wants to know is who will control the slogans and the mass. If Ahmadinejad has his way the rally will be about Qods and an international agenda. BUT if the green movement can focus the attention on the domestic turmoil then the signal to the world will be that Iran’s human rights issue cannot be taken off the table.

Iran at a crossroad on News Talk Online

Shar Shahabi interview on News Talk Online with Gary Baumgarten. Newz Talk Online is syndicated to over 12 million homes in the United States and around the world.

When you reach the link page below please scrole down and click on the black screen under the text write-up and it will start streaming. Also, please leave me your thoughts and comments and do let me know if there is other important issue that I missed and you would like me to address.


http://garybaumgarten.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2009-07-18T09%3A54%3A00-04%3A00&max-results=7

The GODFATHER OF IRANIAN POLITICS DRAWS LINE IN THE SAND

When watching last Friday’s sermon lead by Hashemi Rafsanjani I got the feeling that I had seen this act once before and then it hit me. This was a replay from the 1972 movie “The Godfather”. I was watching Vito (Don) Carleone of Iranian politics speaking as clearly as he possibly could first to his adversary, the very man he supported and helped put in power, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and second, to the military rogue elements of the Islamic regime that are out to dethrone him, that they have been forewarned. Rafsanjani made it clear that in the days and months ahead if they did not adhere to his wishes and the wishes of his people there will be consequences with severe and dire results.

Rafsanjani, in a diplomatic and carefully crafted sermon drew a line in the sand between what he saw as an ideal “Islamic republic” of Iran as opposed to his opponent’s version of an “Islamic” state which looked more like a dictatorship. By drawing from Islamic history, the prophet Mohammed, the Quran and scripts from Islamic scholars including the founder of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Khomeini he made it clear that no Islamic state can survive without the will and support of the people and any attempt to curtail this God given right is a breach of righteousness and social justice “edalat ejtemaee”.

One other great mastery in his speech was to remind the clan leaders and coup plotters who they were dealing with and by making reference to his biography, relationship to the leader of the Islamic revolution and his direct involvement and role in the 1979 revolution and its aftermath Rafsanjani made sure he shut the opposition up.

Clearly what Rafsanjani demonstrated on Friday was a) his authority on this regime and b) how he aims to play a pivotal role in the current crisis Iran is faced with. He stated that “from here on things will not be easy but by doing things right (and he made suggestions such as freeing the political prisoners and opening up the press) we can and must win the peoples trust back”, and from the hundreds of thousands if not over a million men, women and children chanting for his support “Rafsanjani hemayat hemayat”, the very people IRIB state run TV tried desperately to hide from its wide-angle shots, Rafsanjani achieved his mission.

So, now that the godfather has given his ultimatum and has drawn a line in the sand between those political groups and figures who support him against the supporters (Cosa Nostra) of Khameneie who believe that the Iranian government draws its legitimacy from "the Almighty God" and not the people what can we expect? Well, your guess is as good as mine as to which way the pendulum of Iranian politics is going to swing in the days and months ahead but one thing is certain in that there is going to be a lot of bloodshed once the Iranian nation takes to the streets in the millions, again.

Shahriar on Paltalk Radio - Monday July 20th

Demonstrations and pronouncements challenging the government at Friday's prayers suggest things are heating up once again in Iran.

The European Union and the U.S. State Department are both putting renewed pressure on Iran.

The United States is hinting that the regime's legitimacy is being challenged. Israel continues to show Iran its military prowess sending a message that it has the capability of striking that nation's nuclear weapons development facilities if necessary.

Iran's new atomic energy chief is pushing back, telling the West to back off. Some observers believe the regime's foundation is so weakened that a collapse is inevitable. But, then what?

Joining me on News Talk Online on Monday July 20 at 5 PM New York time to discuss all this with Gary Baumgarten on PalTalk Radio. Check out the link below.

http://garybaumgarten.blogspot.com/

The torture of a 17-year-old in Iran

A teenager's story with graphic photos of abuse at the hands of Iran's religious paramilitaries, the Basij

June 24, 2009 The pictures you are seeing are not from someone who supports anarchy, he is not even a part of the "Dust & Twigs" that Ahmadinejad called his opponents. He is just a 17-year-old teenager who was arrested by the paramilitary forces or the Basij. These pictures are taken hours after his return home, his bruised face and broken nose cannot be shown due to his fear from the security forces retaliation. This is a description of his story as told by the young boy in an email that I received:

It was around 12:30 a.m. and I was with my friend, his brother and his brother's wife. We were talking right in front of his place (the friends housing complex), which was about 2 to 3 blocks away from my place, while a group of people escaping entered the alley and took refuge in houses with open doors. My friends' place is in the middle of the alley so nobody took refuge there, and we went in and closed the door. His brother and his wife went in the building and asked me to join them as well, but since I was not feeling comfortable with his family my friend and I stayed out in the parking.

All of a sudden agents in black uniforms and helmets carrying batons broke the door and entered. We tried to hide behind the big trash bin at the end of the parking but one of them saw us, whistled and informed the rest of them who were just leaving the parking. It was just baton strikes all over my body after that, and we were transferred to the minus 4 level of Ministry of Intelligence building. There were a lot of riot police in black uniforms like those on the streets there. They were mostly non-Farsi speakers, and those who spoke Farsi kept telling us they could kill us right away and no one would ever know, they were also insulting us with very bad words.

One of them asked me if Mr. Khatami would come save us, while they were breaking my fingers and cutting the finger webs. Although I swore a thousand times that I had not voted and had never participated in any demonstration, they didn't care and just kept beating me hard. I fainted once or twice but there were some of us who fainted every time their bones were broken, and as soon as they gained their consciousness, the riot police started beating them again. I was trying to contract my muscles to avoid further bone fracture.

This continued till around 1 p.m., when they took us to another place, where security guards were in charge. We were then interrogated by the militia. Again, they kept beating me although I told them that I have never participated in any demonstration. In general, they were less harsh than the previous ones. In the evening, we were transferred to a police station where normal police with green uniform hung us by our hands (you can see the signs of the string around my wrists on the pictures), they hung some of us upside down and started beating us again.

Around 2 AM, they took us to a police hospital where they just stitched the web of my fingers that were still bleeding and bandaged my head without any stitches. They released us in a highway, I think they knew we did nothing; otherwise they would not have released us. I am surprised how I tolerated all the tortures and survived. I didn't see anyone dying there; a lot of people just lost their consciousness, but I guess the baton strikes were so harsh that brain injury or internal bleeding was inevitable. I can never forget the scenes I saw there.

A Mother’s Nightmare

Now that world media has lost its focus on the “Iran story” perhaps in part because the drama of the 2009 election has died down I want to bring YOUR attention, you, a member of the international community, on a news story that has just come out of Tehran. It is the story of Taraneh Mousavi who is missing.

From the reports I have read and obviously from her picture, Taraneh Mousavi was an attractive young women who like many young Iranians was disillusioned by the election outcome and the coup d’état that followed. On June 25th Taraneh was on the streets of Tehran near Ghoba Mosque where she was captured and detained along with other youth protestors, even though some say she was not involved in the street protests taking place in that area.

According to eye witnesses who were with her at the Nobonyad police station stated that within hours they were taken from the station to Hosseinieh Ershad (a detention center) by basij forces and from 4:00pm to 10:30pm they were interrogated. At 10:30pm all but Taraneh were released.

The following day Taraneh's family who were unaware of her whereabouts recieved a phone call by one of the captured youth who was with her, informing the family of Taraneh's location. The family franticly started searching for her but to no avail. Her father who was under severe mental and emotional stress from the ordeal collapses and is rushed home. You see, Taraneh was an only child of the family and daddy’s little girl.

It was reported that after a few days the family was able to find Taranehs car parked in Mirdamad on Daroukhane street but still no sign of her.

It wasn’t until last week July 8th 2009, when an unidentified man contacts the family and tells them that their daughter has been in a car accident and that her injuries include a severe tear in her anus and her uterus and that she was at the Imam Khomeini hospital in Karaj (an hours’ drive outside of Tehran). But when the family gets there the hospital shows no record of such person being admitted. However, one of the nurses did confirm that a girl with Taraneh’s description was brought in to the intensive care unit. The nurse further stated that when they brought Taraneh in she was unconscious and when they took her she was also unconscious.

Now the cover up story coming from the basij (the paramilitary plain clothed shock force) is this: Taraneh allegedly had had sexual relations outside of marriage and was therefore depressed about the situation, in other words, they are insinuating that she deliberately tried to commit suicide. This is a blatant cover-up of state crimes against innocent and defenseless citizens of Iran committed by perpetrators who now use religion as a tool for violence, fear and aggression with impunity.

This is truly a sad day for humanity but to get a sense of the injustice of this crime I ask of you to look at Taranehs picture, close your eyes for 30 seconds and imagine that she is your daughter, your sister, your cousin or best friend being savagely raped by beast like men. Her innocence has been stolen, her life taken, but what these so called men of God can’t do is erase her from history and from our hearts.

Life is precious and it is our duty to protect it. Join the cause for freedom and democracy in Iran and together we can stop such crimes from happening in Iran and around the world, for ever.

The Reformers Race Against Time.

On July 5th 2009 Mir Hossein Mousavi announced that he is filing papers to start a new political party. This move comes three weeks in advance to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad taking the oath of office and being declared the President of Iran, It is clearly a strategic move to a) force the radical factions within the system to retreat and b) to show the disenchanted people of Iran that the reform camp is serious about bringing pragmatic change to Iran’s political system. A system that has finally shown its true identity to its own people and to the world.

Now the question is can Mousavi pull it off in light of the new militarized climate that has gripped Iran with an iron fist and is adamant in the words of Keyhan Newspaper’s Managing-Editor Hossein Shariyat Madari “to blind and gauge out the eyes of anyone who is against the flow of the regime”.

It is certainly a race against time, but it’s a race that can be won for the following reasons.

First, throughout the world history has proven that when people mobilize as a collective force against those who abuse power nothing, not even their guns can stop the will of the people. And if anything, history is on Iran’s side as in 1979 the Iranians took to the streets in protest and overthrew the Shah.

Second, in an effort to form a political party, Mousavi is in fact creating a united front and building up a national network of supporters that up until now had no rights to form independent political groups. So even if we take the number of votes cast for Mousavi as quoted by the Ministry of Interior, a 12 million man / women strong network will still be powerful enough force to bring about change. And

Third, in using a political party as a backbone to streamline a national movement, Mousavi will be in a position to assert himself as a national leader much like what Mosadegh was in 1953 when he stood against the British. With a well oiled and well funded political machine with distributed centers of leadership it would be virtually impossible for the hardliners to confront and challenge the will of the people.

Will Mousavi be successful in forming this political party? We will know soon.

The Multipolar World

In a statement on Tuesday June 30th 2009, Ahmadinejad called for the end of a bipolar monopoly on global resources and global alliances. His statement seemed to be a policy message on behalf of the new leadership establishment in that Iran is ready to cutoff its dependencies on the two power blocks of the old global order, the East and West. He went on to urge countries with budding economies to rely on their own innovation as a means towards national growth and self-reliance. He said and I quote from press TV, “We want to cooperate with the world using an approach of change to break the global bipolarity in politics, science and all other areas and this should be the ultimate goal of the world.”

But hold on a second, hasn’t the free world been doing that after world war II by drafting up free trade agreements, working towards reducing trade tariffs and barriers, setting up business friendly policies to attract investment and building up dynamic innovation centers as a means to stimulate innovation and creativity that in itself creates jobs and business opportunities?

I think what Mr. Ahmadinejad needs to do is to get out and see the world some more, and with a differ set of glasses. The world is NOT at war anymore and this ideological conflict that’s in his head is just that, it’s in his head.

Iran is in deep economic turmoil with rampant un and under employment of between 18% to 25% depending on whose numbers you look at, has an ailing and inefficient industry across all sectors as a result of 30 years of isolationist policies, has high import and export taxation that slows the flow of goods, a heavily layered bureaucracy that has slowed the economy to a standstill which by the way is one of the root causes of corruption in the country might I add, and to add to all of this a young population that can no longer be contained with political lip service and Friday sermons. If Iran’s leadership is serious about breaking the bipolar world order and its alliance’s my recommendation is for Iran to do the following:

A) Refocus the universities to become more innovation centric.

B) Send graduates off to advanced countries of the world so they can get a better sense of the new world they have to compete in.

C) Create joint venture industry projects by involving industry and industry players from around the world.

D) Create a competitive management environment that rewards creativity, leadership and a sense of responsibility. And most important of all,

E) Build up investor confidence which means taking the right steps to bring about political and social stability in Iran.

With these macro strategies in place Iran can significantly raise its level of competitiveness, create the right incentives to attract investment and knowhow, and build a level playing field for itself. The world we live in today Mr. Ahmadinejad revolves around cooperation and yes competition but unless Iran is ready to change from within, it will never be able to see the changes that are taking place around it.

When Push Came to Shove, The Old Gaurd Threw In The Towel

After 16 days of silence, Rafsanjani finally came out from behind the complex curtains of Iranian politics and rather than upholding his usual confident statesmanlike posture the world saw a more subdued image of a defeated veteran politician whose glory days were seemingly over.

This moment in history certainly looked to be the coming of an end for the old guard that some 30 years ago stormed the stage of Iranian politic-real with great vigor and dynamism. However today, what we are witnessing and what should be significant to us is not so much the ending of this era, but rather, the beginning of a new raison d’être in an Islamic Iran. Now the real cliffhanger at least for me is, a) what is the second act going to look like, and b) Who is going to play the lead role if it is not going to be the clerics anymore?

Well, what I do know from having monitored the Iranian elections is that however the new leadership takes shape one thing is certain, it will be one that is more nationalistic, ideological and vigilant in defending its interests both internally and internationally.

Now I’m not a betting man, but if I was, I would put my money on the following predictions in how the new political elite would govern Iran over the coming months:

a) They will create a single party political system solely to act as a rubber stamp for their macro policies and national agenda.

b) They will invest heavily in building up a strong military apparatus to show the neighborhood that Iran is "the" regional super power and that it cannot be ignored in regional political discussions.

c) They will proceed to invest in infrastructure projects to ease the economic conditions of the country but this investment will be done solely through a centralized economic model. Privatization is not an option. And

d) They will build strategic alliances with countries that share Iran’s new ideological thinking.

There is certainly a new sheriff in town and the world needs to learn how to deal with it.

The Rising Military Regime

The Rise of the Military Regime

A week prior to Iran’s presidential election I was in Tehran and in my curiosity I wanted to know who Iranians, those that I had talked to, thought would become the next president. The kneejerk response by many was Ahmadinejad with the justification that since the 1979 revolution no president has ever served less than two consecutive terms in office. It therefore made sense that Ahmadinejad was a shoe-in for the top job, case closed. Or so everyone thought.

What Changed

In my opinion, the game changer that bucked the trend was the live televised debates, a first for the country and the establishment. It was a bold move that allowed the candidates namely the front runners, Ahmadinejad and Mousavi, to face off against each other and before the nation who was eager to know more about their respective positions predominantly on the economy, inflation and unemployment. Instead what they got was a one sided verbal offensive by the president on the other candidates. With a barrage of personal attacks Ahmadinejad went after Mousavi and Karoubi with strong accusations such as public theft from the treasury, taking bribes from business men, mismanaging the countries welfare, being puppet candidates to Rafsanjani who was also accused of grand theft of the nation’s wealth, and for not upholding the values of the Islamic revolution. The highlight of the smear tactic and intimidation came when Ahmadinejad went after Mousavi’s wife Zahra Rahnavard accusing her of falsifying her academic credentials and calling her unqualified. This is an absolute no no in Iranian culture so one had to wonder how could the president, this self-proclaimed humble servant of the Islamic Republic be so bold in going after some of the key figures who were instrumental in the establishment of the Islamic regime in Iran on air?

After it was all said and done Iranian state TV announced that over 80% of the population had watched the debates and that the choice was clear, a candidate that stood for change verses one that had a hidden agenda.

The GREEN Revolution

We all know that Iran a country of 70 million people has one of the youngest demographics in the world with over 70% of the population under the age of 35 and more specifically with 40% between the ages of 18 and 35, of which 53% are women. This voter block also has a relatively uniform profile and pattern of behavior irrespective of the classical class distinctions. It’s a segment of Iranian society I call “the generation AFTER”, in reference to the 1979 revolution. The Generation AFTER has many aspirations in common with their peers nationwide, they want opportunity to grow as individuals, they want meaningful jobs and a better quality of life, they demand more social freedoms to express themselves, and they also share a common bond in having great pride in their country and want to see that pride be restored on the international level. It is also important to mention that this generation is highly educated, is technologically savvy (as we now know in hindsight of what’s happening on twitter, facebook and YouTube) and they wish to engage with the rest of world as friends and as equals. They also have great respect for their traditions but would like to see these traditions stay updated with the times.

The video blogs on YouTube and CNN i-report clearly demonstrate the energy and hope this generation has brought to the political arena and more specifically to the Mousavi camp. So, the question again arises why did Ahmadinejad neglect to attract the first time voters, university students and the young professionals through any form of proactive campaigning (which is very different from busing people in for his rallies from out of town). Did he know something the rest of Iran didn’t?

The Counter GREEN Revolution

So, while the June 12th 2009 election was initially embraced with great hope and enthusiasm it soon became overshadowed by the devastating announcement that came only a matter of hours after the voting stations had closed, Mir Hossein Mousavi had lost. And he had lost by a landslide margin.

Without repeating what has already been covered by world media about the Iranian electoral process, the scandalous result, the clashes on the streets that followed, the number of protestors killed mercilessly by plain clothed pressure groups known as the basij forces, and the current terror tactics being deployed to deter Iranians from engaging in any form of resistance such as intruding into homes and taking protestors away in the darkness of night, allow me to bring some clarity on the situation by addressing what is now blatantly obvious but no one seems to want to talk about.

From the leaked Ministry of Interior documents and the voter tabulated computer sheets it is conclusive and self-evident that an Islamic (candidate vetted) democracy was staged, an election was rigged and a presidency was stolen. It’s called a coup d’état and like all other coups in the world it needs no justification and it needs no forewarning. It simply happened because a powerful few plotted against the will of the many in a moment of opportunity. The conspirators in this case were the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRG) who seem to have other ideas in how to lead Iran in the 21st century.

So while political pundits, analysts and reporters are still pondering in their evaluation of what to call Iran’s political system today, allow me to be the first to label it as it is, a Military Regime to the likes of Argentina under the rule of Juan Peron between 1946 to 1955. And why do I make such a comparison? Well, like Peron who received a strict catholic upbringing, Ahmadinejad is a devout Shiite Muslim and a prodigy of Mesbah Yazdi a fundamentalist militant cleric who believes in Shia expansionism. Politically, Ahmadinejad is associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, ideologically is a staunch critic of the United States and Israel (its adversary in the Middle East), and backs strengthening relationships with countries such as Russia, China, Venezuela, and Syria (Syria for strategic interests in the Arab world). Peron on the other hand was fascinated by Benito Mussolini and Germany’s Adolf Hitler and therefore came to power and ruled Argentina with an Iron fist backed by the support of the military. And finally like Peron, Ahmadinejad values the importance of a centralized economic model and opposes the free market and privatization of industry.

The ramifications of this Coup D’état

Now that we know what kind of a man and political system we are dealing with it is important to assess the ramifications of having such a system exercising its soft and hard power first in a volatile Middle East and second around the world. Over the next few days and weeks Ahmadinejad will continue to silence the opposition with all means possible and demonstrate to the world that he is fully in control. Second, he will shrug off all attempts to engage the United States in a direct dialogue despite president Obama’s overtures and through its radical cohorts such as Hezbollah and Hamas will continue to antagonize Israel by undermining its legitimacy to exist as a sovereign nation in the Middle East. Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has already made the announcement that everything in Iran will be normalized soon and that we shall continue the work ahead of us. Third, the regime will be in no mood to compromise on its nuclear project and or to comply with its NPT obligations. Iran will continue developing its nuclear capability with full speed. Fourth, with the oil and gas revenues at US $70 dollars a barrel the IRG will expand its presence around the world by investing in key markets of the Middle East, Europe, South East Asia and Latin America. This is an important step for the military regime to maintain its strategic interests in other countries and have leverage over their political decision making as well. On the domestic front, the economy will continue to stagnate as a result of isolationist policies and presumably further international sanctions that may be on the way. And as usual, the regime with blame the economic hardships on foreign powers, the United States and England. And finally fifth, with its coalition of allies Russia, China and Venezuela, Iran will showcase its military power in the Persian Gulf to demonstrate its regional dominance and superiority in the Middle East. This show of force serves two objectives, first to shame the Arab states including Egypt for their silence against Israel and second to challenge Israel into a direct confrontation.

The catastrophe

With a religiously charged cold war mindset still prevalent amongst many generals and brigadiers within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard that surround Ahmadinejad, Iran is likely to engage in regional adventurism making life extremely difficult for America to maintain its presence in the Middle East. Its number one objective will be to push America and its allies as far away from the region as possible thus creating a power vacuum that only Iran can fill. This policy if allowed to expand will ultimately lead the Middle East towards the imminent threat of a low level regional war and in its escalated form I believe could trigger off World War III.

The Historic Crossroad

What I have just described is a scenario that is playing itself out at its initial stages before our very eyes, however, this bleak version of reality could be altered if, first, Mir Hossein Mousavi comes to the forefront and takes the role of a national leader ready to protect the interest of the Iranian voters in a more visible manner. Second, a group of military men from within the ranks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard who are made aware of the short, medium and long term threats of this coup break away from the pack of conspirators and join Mousavi both to protect him and to create a military defensive unit on the side of the people in the event the IRG was to bring out heavier guns to the streets. Third, to exert international pressure on Ahmadinejad by declaring his government illegitimate thus closing all chances of international maneuvering. And last but not least to stage an all out protest by the masses that encompasses a nationwide strike.

With these steps set into motion and by coming out in support of a nation whose votes were stolen and their dreams shattered, the world community will not only have averted a regional and potentially global catastrophe, but more importantly, it will have strengthened the will, desire and determination of “Generation AFTER” with the belief and hope of establishing an everlasting Democratic system of government in sync with the free world. I personally like this latter version of history a lot more, don’t you?