The Rising Military Regime

The Rise of the Military Regime

A week prior to Iran’s presidential election I was in Tehran and in my curiosity I wanted to know who Iranians, those that I had talked to, thought would become the next president. The kneejerk response by many was Ahmadinejad with the justification that since the 1979 revolution no president has ever served less than two consecutive terms in office. It therefore made sense that Ahmadinejad was a shoe-in for the top job, case closed. Or so everyone thought.

What Changed

In my opinion, the game changer that bucked the trend was the live televised debates, a first for the country and the establishment. It was a bold move that allowed the candidates namely the front runners, Ahmadinejad and Mousavi, to face off against each other and before the nation who was eager to know more about their respective positions predominantly on the economy, inflation and unemployment. Instead what they got was a one sided verbal offensive by the president on the other candidates. With a barrage of personal attacks Ahmadinejad went after Mousavi and Karoubi with strong accusations such as public theft from the treasury, taking bribes from business men, mismanaging the countries welfare, being puppet candidates to Rafsanjani who was also accused of grand theft of the nation’s wealth, and for not upholding the values of the Islamic revolution. The highlight of the smear tactic and intimidation came when Ahmadinejad went after Mousavi’s wife Zahra Rahnavard accusing her of falsifying her academic credentials and calling her unqualified. This is an absolute no no in Iranian culture so one had to wonder how could the president, this self-proclaimed humble servant of the Islamic Republic be so bold in going after some of the key figures who were instrumental in the establishment of the Islamic regime in Iran on air?

After it was all said and done Iranian state TV announced that over 80% of the population had watched the debates and that the choice was clear, a candidate that stood for change verses one that had a hidden agenda.

The GREEN Revolution

We all know that Iran a country of 70 million people has one of the youngest demographics in the world with over 70% of the population under the age of 35 and more specifically with 40% between the ages of 18 and 35, of which 53% are women. This voter block also has a relatively uniform profile and pattern of behavior irrespective of the classical class distinctions. It’s a segment of Iranian society I call “the generation AFTER”, in reference to the 1979 revolution. The Generation AFTER has many aspirations in common with their peers nationwide, they want opportunity to grow as individuals, they want meaningful jobs and a better quality of life, they demand more social freedoms to express themselves, and they also share a common bond in having great pride in their country and want to see that pride be restored on the international level. It is also important to mention that this generation is highly educated, is technologically savvy (as we now know in hindsight of what’s happening on twitter, facebook and YouTube) and they wish to engage with the rest of world as friends and as equals. They also have great respect for their traditions but would like to see these traditions stay updated with the times.

The video blogs on YouTube and CNN i-report clearly demonstrate the energy and hope this generation has brought to the political arena and more specifically to the Mousavi camp. So, the question again arises why did Ahmadinejad neglect to attract the first time voters, university students and the young professionals through any form of proactive campaigning (which is very different from busing people in for his rallies from out of town). Did he know something the rest of Iran didn’t?

The Counter GREEN Revolution

So, while the June 12th 2009 election was initially embraced with great hope and enthusiasm it soon became overshadowed by the devastating announcement that came only a matter of hours after the voting stations had closed, Mir Hossein Mousavi had lost. And he had lost by a landslide margin.

Without repeating what has already been covered by world media about the Iranian electoral process, the scandalous result, the clashes on the streets that followed, the number of protestors killed mercilessly by plain clothed pressure groups known as the basij forces, and the current terror tactics being deployed to deter Iranians from engaging in any form of resistance such as intruding into homes and taking protestors away in the darkness of night, allow me to bring some clarity on the situation by addressing what is now blatantly obvious but no one seems to want to talk about.

From the leaked Ministry of Interior documents and the voter tabulated computer sheets it is conclusive and self-evident that an Islamic (candidate vetted) democracy was staged, an election was rigged and a presidency was stolen. It’s called a coup d’état and like all other coups in the world it needs no justification and it needs no forewarning. It simply happened because a powerful few plotted against the will of the many in a moment of opportunity. The conspirators in this case were the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRG) who seem to have other ideas in how to lead Iran in the 21st century.

So while political pundits, analysts and reporters are still pondering in their evaluation of what to call Iran’s political system today, allow me to be the first to label it as it is, a Military Regime to the likes of Argentina under the rule of Juan Peron between 1946 to 1955. And why do I make such a comparison? Well, like Peron who received a strict catholic upbringing, Ahmadinejad is a devout Shiite Muslim and a prodigy of Mesbah Yazdi a fundamentalist militant cleric who believes in Shia expansionism. Politically, Ahmadinejad is associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, ideologically is a staunch critic of the United States and Israel (its adversary in the Middle East), and backs strengthening relationships with countries such as Russia, China, Venezuela, and Syria (Syria for strategic interests in the Arab world). Peron on the other hand was fascinated by Benito Mussolini and Germany’s Adolf Hitler and therefore came to power and ruled Argentina with an Iron fist backed by the support of the military. And finally like Peron, Ahmadinejad values the importance of a centralized economic model and opposes the free market and privatization of industry.

The ramifications of this Coup D’état

Now that we know what kind of a man and political system we are dealing with it is important to assess the ramifications of having such a system exercising its soft and hard power first in a volatile Middle East and second around the world. Over the next few days and weeks Ahmadinejad will continue to silence the opposition with all means possible and demonstrate to the world that he is fully in control. Second, he will shrug off all attempts to engage the United States in a direct dialogue despite president Obama’s overtures and through its radical cohorts such as Hezbollah and Hamas will continue to antagonize Israel by undermining its legitimacy to exist as a sovereign nation in the Middle East. Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has already made the announcement that everything in Iran will be normalized soon and that we shall continue the work ahead of us. Third, the regime will be in no mood to compromise on its nuclear project and or to comply with its NPT obligations. Iran will continue developing its nuclear capability with full speed. Fourth, with the oil and gas revenues at US $70 dollars a barrel the IRG will expand its presence around the world by investing in key markets of the Middle East, Europe, South East Asia and Latin America. This is an important step for the military regime to maintain its strategic interests in other countries and have leverage over their political decision making as well. On the domestic front, the economy will continue to stagnate as a result of isolationist policies and presumably further international sanctions that may be on the way. And as usual, the regime with blame the economic hardships on foreign powers, the United States and England. And finally fifth, with its coalition of allies Russia, China and Venezuela, Iran will showcase its military power in the Persian Gulf to demonstrate its regional dominance and superiority in the Middle East. This show of force serves two objectives, first to shame the Arab states including Egypt for their silence against Israel and second to challenge Israel into a direct confrontation.

The catastrophe

With a religiously charged cold war mindset still prevalent amongst many generals and brigadiers within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard that surround Ahmadinejad, Iran is likely to engage in regional adventurism making life extremely difficult for America to maintain its presence in the Middle East. Its number one objective will be to push America and its allies as far away from the region as possible thus creating a power vacuum that only Iran can fill. This policy if allowed to expand will ultimately lead the Middle East towards the imminent threat of a low level regional war and in its escalated form I believe could trigger off World War III.

The Historic Crossroad

What I have just described is a scenario that is playing itself out at its initial stages before our very eyes, however, this bleak version of reality could be altered if, first, Mir Hossein Mousavi comes to the forefront and takes the role of a national leader ready to protect the interest of the Iranian voters in a more visible manner. Second, a group of military men from within the ranks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard who are made aware of the short, medium and long term threats of this coup break away from the pack of conspirators and join Mousavi both to protect him and to create a military defensive unit on the side of the people in the event the IRG was to bring out heavier guns to the streets. Third, to exert international pressure on Ahmadinejad by declaring his government illegitimate thus closing all chances of international maneuvering. And last but not least to stage an all out protest by the masses that encompasses a nationwide strike.

With these steps set into motion and by coming out in support of a nation whose votes were stolen and their dreams shattered, the world community will not only have averted a regional and potentially global catastrophe, but more importantly, it will have strengthened the will, desire and determination of “Generation AFTER” with the belief and hope of establishing an everlasting Democratic system of government in sync with the free world. I personally like this latter version of history a lot more, don’t you?