Can’t Put The Cart Before The Horse

Over the past 30 years the opposition groups, and I am referring to those exiled after the 1979 revolution, have gone to great lengths deliberating over the form and nature of a future political system in Iran. And for 30 years these less than cordial clash of ideas have done nothing but leave a negative social impact on the consciousness of the Iranian people, while at the same time, alienating many from political participation, both in Iran and across the diaspora.

From monarchists, to republicans, to the Mojahedin Khalg to born again Islamic democrats, all have spent endless time and energy pushing their own self-interest at the exclusion of the other, not realizing that such hollow posturing and self aggrandizing behavior has had no real impact on the lives of 72 million Iranians inside the country. The result of all this huffing and puffing, ZERO.

Why do I say this?

Well, in my opinion the opposition has made two fatal errors over the past three decades. First, they have dramatically underestimated and misjudged the level of political maturity on the part of their compatriots who have lived through 30 years of dictatorship inside the country, and two, they have mistaken priorities by focusing on partisan politics as opposed to leading a coalition national movement.

Allow me to elaborate.

On the first point, the opposition needs to realize that there is a new generation of social and political activists in Iran, the 20 and 30 something, born after 1979. This generation has a completely different outlook on politics that is uniquely their own having spent 30 years in agony under an absolute regime that has been accountable to no one.

This generation knows full well what tyranny looks and feels like when every aspect of their life has been under constant scrutiny. And so it is only natural for them to become less concerned with outdated debates of three decades ago and more preoccupied with finding a solution out of this dire state of misery caused by lack of political transparency and accountability.

In a nutshell, this generation is more concerned with uniting Iranians in support of establishing a political system that can protect their inalienable rights and freedoms, establish better relations with the free world, and laying the foundation of a political system where Iranians would no longer have to live in fear of political persecution. On this point, the opposition has failed dismally to recognize this immediate priority and to address the need for solidarity and unity, and unless they can recognize the pillars of this struggle and develop a common language and a collective set of actionable goals that can meet this immediate need as oppose to preaching division, they will undoubtedly become obsolete.

The second failure is in the opposition’s inability to recognize priorities. The way they are currently behaving is as if democracy has already been won in Iran. It hasn’t, and unless they can accept this fact that all ideological differences must be set aside for the greater good of a more noble cause, the opposition will become isolated from the movement that is taking place within the country and as a result they will become irrelevant. What we are seeing before our eyes is a real page turner in Middle East history. Iran is once again at an unprecedented juncture and the country is on the verge of a major political shift.

However this shift can go in one of two directions, the transformation of the country into a complete militarized dictatorship, or alternatively, the making of a secular democracy. In my opinion as a citizen of that great country, for the latter option to become a reality the opposition groups need to dramatically rethink their strategy and modify their behavior. And for that to happen, the various groups can no longer afford to put the cart before the horse by continuing to bicker over ideologies that are divisive to the battle at hand and one that is taking place within the country today. I hope they can get it right.

The Change Movement In Iran Isn’t Over By A Long Shot

February 11th 2010 marked the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution in Iran, an event that commemorated a political victory for the people over an authoritarian system, the Monarchy. The symbolism of this occasion was once again enough to bring the green movement out in to the streets in protest of a stolen election, but more so, a hijacked opportunity for greater freedoms, openness and democratic rule in Iran. But what made this year’s event different from past gatherings was in how well the regime aggrandized the venue while in parallel muzzling the voices of change in its attempt to save face and maintain legitimacy, both domestically and internationally.

Knowing that people would come out in numbers to oppose the regime on this day, the coup government yet again resorted to brutal force and oppressive tactics. These moves started weeks in advance of February 11th with mass arrests of human rights leaders, student activists, journalists, and allies to Mir Hossein Mousavie and Mehdi Karoubi, followed by more kangaroo trials and the execution of two youth that were falsely accused. What made the regime even more insecure was that days prior the anniversary, residents of Tehran had received random phone calls and SMS’s warning them not to turnout for rallies or be prepared to face severe consequences. This hysteria was intended to create fear and to send out a clear warning that the regime would not tolerate insubordination.

Then came February 11th, 2010.

To overpower the opposition movement and to prevent it from consolidating, a full brigade (10,000) armed anti-riot police and plain clothed basij militia forces were unleashed to clampdown on people of all ages. These attacks did not exclude the leaders of the movement either. Mehdi Karoubi’s car and entourage was attacked and his motorcade was vandalized, Dr. Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi had been attacked and assaulted by the basij elements, and Mohammad Reza Khatamie, the brother of the former president, and his wife the granddaughter of Ayatollah Khomeini were also held for a few hours before being released with the condition that they would not take part in any rally. But it did not stop there, more street clashes ensued and more protesters were injured, teargased, and reports of two deaths have also been made.

But while all of this was happening away from the cameras the celebrations continued. To create a favorable visual the coup government had carefully installed a lineup of loud speakers on all major roads leading to Azadi (freedom) square in an attempt to lessen the voice of opposition and to reduce sounds of gunshots if fired. Furthermore, to make sure enough heads were present and flags waving for the live national broadcast, roughly 100,000 people were bused in from rural areas, often villages, schools, and members of the bureaucracy were give paid leave for their participation. The event was staged and lacked one important element of years gone by, authenticity.

And so, as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gave a foreign policy speech from the podium at Azadi square to his crowed of people and to foreign governments, and warned the West of their scheming plans to control the energy resources of the Middle East in a power grab for wanting to control the world, the green movement once again displayed their bravery and showed their desire for change. I just hope the world is watching and readying itself to be more supportive.

War Games

Eight months after a rigged presidential election that infuriated millions of Iranians by having their vote stolen followed by a series of street protests that lead to violence and the death of hundreds, the imprisonment of thousands, and the execution of many protesters, the calendar date approaches yet another occasion for Iranians to demonstrate their discontent with the regime, February 11th, the day the Islamic revolution was won back in 1979.

The social media networks are already in full communiqué, twitter and facebook are blistering with messages, posters and fliers in preparation for yet another showdown between the people and the junta. This time however the tone and nature of the demands are very different. It’s no longer about the election or votes, but rather, the legitimacy of the theocracy and its incompetent rulers is in question.

But while an historic movement is going in Iran, America has sent warships to the Persian Gulf and additionally has announced the installation of surface to air antimissile systems in neighboring Persian Gulf states such as the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Why is military build-up, this option of last resort as President Obama had stated, all of a sudden become an imminent option?

The answer can come from three different assumptions with three possible scenarios.

The first, as reported by various Middle East analysts is the assumption that in response to international sanctions namely the blockage of oil and gas into and from Iran, the Islamic regime may consider this an act of war and retaliate by launching missiles into Israel and other US interests in the region. With this assumption it is necessary for the United States to protect its allies and to prevent such strikes from hitting hard targets. Thus to build assurance in the event of an escalation of tension between the United States and Iran, America has prepared itself to defend its allies, including Israel.

The second assumption is that Israel may engage in adventurism of its own by attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities. In anticipation of such a scenario, an American presence will in fact reduce the likelihood of such a devastating move that can enflame the entire region into war by curbing Israeli interest in an airstrike.

And the third assumption is that once the sanctions regime starts to have impact on the Islamic regime Iran, as part of its defense strategy, may attempt to block the straits of hormoz thus crippling the global economy by preventing oil flow from the Persian Gulf. In such a case the American warships will be able to deter such destabilizing maneuvers or in a worst-case situation be able to unblock the water way expeditiously and protect it from Iranian influence.

However, what really concerns me is the thought that America and the free world have somehow given up on the democracy movement in Iran ahead of February 11th and the subsequent days and months thereafter. In my opinion any thought of war with Iran at this stage is a grave mistake now that Iranians have found the courage to stand up to this brutal and anti-Iranian regime. A movement that is rapidly uniting workers unions, teachers, diplomats, clerics, students, professors, women’s groups and other sectors of society who no longer want to live a life under the Islamic regime.

It would be a grave mistake if America would once again give in to outside pressures and foreign influence on matters of foreign policy with respect to Iran by marginalizing or dismissing the green movement as a serious and viable option that can bring about peace and stability not only within Iran but to the greater Middle East. I hope this does not happen while democracy is on the march in that country.